Why Turkey Is Staying Out of the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact: Strategic Calculations and Regional Implications

Why Turkey Is Staying Out of the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact: Strategic Calculations and Regional Implications

Saudi and Pakistani defence officials engage in high-level talks while a Turkish representative observes during a strategic meeting on regional security cooperation.

By Defence Worlds Desk

In recent months, reports of a growing defence partnership between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have attracted significant attention across diplomatic and strategic circles. Speculation initially suggested that Turkey might also become part of a trilateral security arrangement, raising expectations of a new regional military bloc. However, official statements and diplomatic sources have since clarified that the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact remains strictly bilateral, with Turkey staying outside the formal framework.

This development has sparked widespread discussion about Ankara’s strategic choices, Riyadh’s regional priorities, and Islamabad’s evolving security partnerships. As geopolitical dynamics continue to shift in the Middle East and South Asia, understanding why Turkey is not part of this agreement offers valuable insight into the broader regional balance of power.

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Background: The Saudi-Pakistan Defence Agreement

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan share a long history of military and security cooperation.Over several decades, Pakistan has provided training, advisory support, and limited deployments to assist Saudi defence capabilities. In return, Riyadh has extended financial assistance and economic backing to Islamabad during periods of crisis.

In 2025, the two countries formalized this relationship through a renewed defence cooperation agreement. The pact focuses on:

• Joint military training and exercises
• Intelligence sharing
• Defence technology collaboration
• Security assistance and advisory support
• Counterterrorism cooperation

While the agreement does not publicly outline mutual defence guarantees, it strengthens strategic coordination between the two nations at a time of growing regional uncertainty.

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Early Speculation About Turkey’s Role

Following the announcement of the Saudi-Pakistan pact, media reports and analysts speculated that Turkey could join as a third partner. This speculation was fueled by:

• Turkey’s expanding defence industry
• Its close political ties with Pakistan
• Improved diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia in recent years
• Ankara’s ambition to increase its influence in the Islamic world

Trilateral meetings and high-level diplomatic contacts added to the perception that a broader security framework might be emerging. Some commentators even described the possibility of a “Muslim defence bloc” aimed at addressing shared security challenges.

However, officials from all three countries later clarified that no such trilateral agreement had been finalized.

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Saudi Arabia’s Preference for a Bilateral Framework

One of the main reasons Turkey remains outside the pact is Saudi Arabia’s decision to keep the agreement bilateral.

Riyadh appears to favor a focused and manageable partnership with Pakistan rather than a more complex multilateral alliance. Several factors influence this approach:

Strategic Simplicity

A bilateral pact allows Saudi Arabia to coordinate directly with Pakistan without navigating the competing priorities of a third major regional power. Adding Turkey could complicate decision-making and operational planning.

Diplomatic Balance

Saudi Arabia maintains important relationships with multiple countries, including the United States, European partners, India, and Gulf states. A broader military alliance could create concerns among these partners and limit Riyadh’s diplomatic flexibility.

Risk Management

By limiting commitments to one partner, Saudi Arabia reduces the risk of being drawn into conflicts unrelated to its core interests.

This cautious strategy reflects Riyadh’s broader effort to modernize its security policy while avoiding rigid alliances.

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Turkey’s Strategic Calculations

Turkey’s decision to remain outside the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact is also driven by its own strategic considerations.

NATO Membership

As a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey is already part of a major collective defence system. Entering into another formal military pact could raise legal and political questions about overlapping obligations.

Ankara has consistently emphasized that its NATO commitments remain central to its security policy, even as it expands regional partnerships.

Flexible Foreign Policy

Turkey has adopted a multi-directional foreign policy in recent years, balancing ties with Western allies, Russia, the Middle East, and Asia. This approach prioritizes flexibility over fixed alliances.

Joining a binding defence pact could restrict Ankara’s ability to maneuver diplomatically in sensitive regional disputes.

Independent Regional Ambitions

Turkey seeks to project influence through diplomacy, defence exports, humanitarian aid, and mediation efforts. Rather than becoming part of another country’s security framework, Ankara prefers initiatives where it plays a leading or equal role.

This preference aligns with Turkey’s broader vision of strategic autonomy.

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Exploratory Talks Without Formal Commitments

Although Turkey is not part of the current agreement, officials have confirmed that exploratory discussions on regional security cooperation have taken place among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

These talks have focused on:

• Defence industry collaboration
• Counterterrorism coordination
• Maritime security
• Regional stability initiatives

However, they have not resulted in a binding treaty. Instead, cooperation remains limited to bilateral and project-based arrangements.

This approach allows all three countries to work together selectively without formal alliance structures.

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Regional Geopolitical Context

The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact must be understood within the wider geopolitical environment.

Middle East Tensions

The Middle East continues to experience instability related to conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Syria, and broader Iran-West tensions. Saudi Arabia aims to strengthen its defence posture without escalating regional rivalries.

South Asian Security Concerns

Pakistan faces ongoing security challenges, including border tensions, internal security threats, and economic pressures. Strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia provides Islamabad with strategic and financial reassurance.

Global Power Competition

Growing competition among major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, has encouraged regional actors to diversify partnerships rather than rely on single alliances.

In this complex environment, a limited bilateral pact offers stability without excessive political risk.

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Economic and Defence Industry Factors

Defence cooperation today is closely linked to industrial partnerships.

Turkey has developed a strong domestic defence sector, producing drones, armored vehicles, naval platforms, and missile systems. Pakistan is one of its major customers, while Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in co-production and technology transfer.

Despite these links, industrial cooperation does not automatically translate into formal military alliances. All three countries prefer project-based collaboration that supports domestic industries without long-term strategic obligations.

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Implications for India and Regional Stability

The Saudi-Pakistan pact has also attracted attention in India, given New Delhi’s growing ties with Riyadh and Ankara’s close relationship with Islamabad.

Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in economic and energy partnerships with India and does not wish to jeopardize these ties by appearing to support one side in regional disputes.

By keeping the pact bilateral and limited in scope, Riyadh signals that it is not pursuing an overtly confrontational security posture.

This balanced approach contributes to regional stability and reduces the risk of polarization.

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Media Narratives and Public Perception

Early reports of a potential trilateral alliance generated strong reactions on social media and in political commentary. Some narratives portrayed the idea as the emergence of a new ideological bloc, while others viewed it as a challenge to existing power structures.

However, diplomatic realities have proven more nuanced. Officials from all sides emphasize that cooperation is pragmatic rather than ideological, and focused on practical security needs.

This gap between media speculation and policy decisions highlights the importance of careful analysis in understanding regional developments.

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Future Outlook: Will Turkey Join Later?

While Turkey is not part of the current pact, future cooperation cannot be ruled out. Changing regional dynamics, leadership priorities, or security threats could reshape strategic calculations.

Possible future scenarios include:

• Expanded trilateral exercises and training programs
• Joint defence manufacturing projects
• Regional security forums involving all three countries
• Informal coordination mechanisms

For now, however, all indications suggest that Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad prefer gradual and flexible engagement over formal alliances.

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Conclusion

Turkey’s absence from the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact reflects a combination of Saudi Arabia’s preference for bilateral cooperation, Turkey’s strategic autonomy, NATO obligations, and the broader regional context.

Rather than signaling division, this arrangement highlights the pragmatic approach adopted by all three countries. They continue to collaborate where interests align while avoiding rigid commitments that could limit diplomatic options.

In an era marked by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting alliances, such flexibility has become a defining feature of modern security policy.

As regional dynamics evolve, the Saudi-Pakistan partnership—and Turkey’s measured distance from it—will remain an important indicator of how major regional players balance cooperation, independence, and stability in the years ahead.

 

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