How IAF Squadron Strength Impacts the India–China–Pakistan Military Balance
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| Indian Air Force fighter aircraft conduct a high-altitude formation flight, reflecting India’s air power posture amid strategic competition with China and Pakistan. |
New Delhi —
The combat strength of the Indian Air Force (IAF) has emerged as one of the
most critical factors shaping the military balance between India, China, and
Pakistan. As regional tensions persist along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)
with China and the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan, the number, quality,
and readiness of IAF fighter squadrons directly influence deterrence, crisis
stability, and India’s ability to manage a potential two-front contingency.
While modern warfare increasingly relies on
missiles, drones, and cyber capabilities, air power remains the fastest and
most decisive instrument for gaining battlefield advantage. In South Asia,
where distances are short and escalation timelines are compressed, squadron
strength is not just a numerical measure—it is a strategic signal.
Understanding IAF Squadron Strength
A fighter squadron in the Indian Air Force
typically consists of 16–18 aircraft,
along with trained pilots, maintenance crews, and operational infrastructure.
India’s officially sanctioned strength is 42 fighter squadrons, a figure derived from
long-standing threat assessments involving simultaneous pressure from Pakistan
in the west and China in the north and east.
However, due to the retirement of ageing
MiG-21, MiG-27, and MiG-23 fleets, the IAF’s operational strength has fallen to
around 30–31 squadrons in recent
years. This gap between sanctioned and actual strength has significant
implications for India’s regional air power balance.
India–Pakistan Air Power Balance
Pakistan’s Strategy: Fewer, Focused, and
Networked
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) operates a
smaller but tightly integrated fighter fleet, consisting primarily of F-16s, JF-17 Thunder variants, and the recently inducted J-10C fighters. Pakistan’s squadron
strength is estimated at 20–22 squadrons,
numerically inferior to India but optimized for operations on a single front.
Pakistan’s air bases are located close to the
Indian border, allowing rapid aircraft turnaround times and concentrated
deployment. This geography enables the PAF to offset numerical disadvantages
through shorter response cycles and focused operational planning.
Impact of IAF Squadron Numbers on Pakistan
Front
For India, maintaining adequate squadron
strength is essential to:
·
Sustain continuous
combat air patrols along the western border
·
Conduct offensive
counter-air and deep-strike missions
·
Retain reserves for escalation control
A reduced number of squadrons limits the IAF’s
ability to dominate Pakistani airspace over extended periods. While qualitative
advantages—such as Rafale’s advanced
sensors and weapons—enhance effectiveness, quantity still matters in
sustained operations.
In scenarios similar to the 2019 Balakot
crisis, squadron strength determines whether India can apply pressure without
overstretching assets needed elsewhere.
India–China Air Power Balance
The China Challenge: Scale and Depth
China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force(PLAAF) represents a fundamentally different challenge. It operates over 1,900 combat aircraft, including J-20 stealth fighters, J-16 multirole
jets, and a rapidly expanding fleet of unmanned systems.
While not all PLAAF assets are permanently
deployed against India, China has significantly upgraded airfields and
logistics infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang. These upgrades allow the rapid
induction of aircraft during crises, reducing earlier geographical
disadvantages.
Why Squadron Strength Matters Against China
Against China, squadron strength affects:
·
Sustained
presence over high-altitude sectors
·
Air
defence coverage for critical infrastructure
·
Ability to
rotate aircraft and crews in harsh conditions
Unlike Pakistan, China can afford attrition
and long-duration deployments. A reduced IAF squadron count limits India’s
capacity to maintain air dominance across multiple sectors simultaneously,
especially if China escalates beyond symbolic shows of force.
The Two-Front Scenario: Core Strategic
Concern
India’s defence planning has long revolved
around the possibility of a simultaneous
conflict with Pakistan and China. In such a scenario, squadron
strength becomes a decisive factor.
With approximately 30–31 squadrons, the IAF
must:
·
Allocate forces to western and northern fronts
·
Maintain air defence of major cities and
strategic assets
·
Preserve training and maintenance cycles
This distribution strains operational
flexibility. Even advanced aircraft cannot be everywhere at once, and air power
relies heavily on availability rates, maintenance windows, and pilot fatigue
management.
Quality vs Quantity: Can Technology
Compensate?
India has invested heavily in qualitative
upgrades:
·
Rafale
fighters with advanced radar, electronic warfare, and long-range
missiles
·
Tejas Mk1A
with modern avionics and AESA radar
·
Network-centric
warfare integration with AWACS and satellites
These capabilities significantly enhance
combat effectiveness per aircraft. However, most air power analysts agree that technology cannot fully substitute for numbers,
particularly in prolonged or multi-axis conflicts.
China, in particular, combines both quantity
and improving quality, making squadron strength a non-negotiable factor in
maintaining credible deterrence.
Strategic Signalling and Deterrence Value
Squadron strength also carries political and
psychological weight. Visible reductions in fighter numbers can embolden
adversaries, while clear induction timelines reassure allies and domestic
audiences.
For India:
·
Adequate squadron strength strengthens deterrence stability
·
It reduces pressure for early escalation in
crises
·
It provides policymakers with more diplomatic and military options
Conversely, prolonged shortages risk narrowing
strategic choices during high-pressure situations.
Efforts to Restore Squadron Strength
India has initiated several measures to
address the shortfall:
·
Induction of 83 Tejas Mk1A fighters
·
Procurement plans for 114 multirole fighters
·
Development of Tejas Mk2 and AMCA (5th-generation fighter)
However, these programmes take time. Until
they mature, the IAF must manage a delicate balance between operational
readiness and long-term modernization.
Conclusion: Squadron Strength as Strategic
Insurance
The strength of the Indian Air Force’s fighter
squadrons is not merely a numerical statistic—it is a core pillar of India’s
national security architecture. In a region marked by unresolved borders, rapid
escalation risks, and rising military competition, squadron strength directly
shapes the India–China–Pakistan balance.
While advanced aircraft and modern sensors
enhance capability, sufficient numbers remain essential for deterrence,
flexibility, and sustained operations. As India navigates a complex security
environment, restoring and maintaining robust IAF squadron strength will be
critical to preserving strategic stability in South Asia.
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